When the UK’s medical cannabis market was launched in 2018, I remember the palpable sense of optimism. We were confident that this would lead to a rapid and transformative impact on healthcare. However, as we stand in 2024, the journey has proven to be far more challenging than many of us anticipated. The market currently serves around 45,000 patients—a figure that falls short of the early expectations. A recent Sky News report has set an ambitious target of 300,000 patients by 2028. As someone deeply involved in this industry, I feel it’s crucial to critically examine what it will take to reach that goal and whether it’s truly realistic.
The Target: 5,312 New Patients Per Month
To reach the 300,000 patient target by 2028, we would need to add approximately 5,312 new patients every month. This growth rate isn’t just ambitious—it’s unprecedented. To better understand the challenge, I’ve compared it with the growth rates observed in other countries that have established medical cannabis programs.
Where We Stand vs. Where We Need to Go
Since the legalisation of medical cannabis in the UK, our patient base has grown to 45,000 over six years, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 97.5%. However, this growth hasn’t kept pace with our initial projections. To meet the 300,000 patient target by 2028, we would need to significantly accelerate our growth rate, requiring a CAGR of 57.4% over the next four years.
It’s important to note that earlier predictions, such as those from Prohibition Partners, were significantly more optimistic. For example, they once predicted that by 2024, the UK cannabis market could be worth £2.31 billion and that we’d have around 340,000 patients. As of August 2024, the reality is starkly different—just 45,000 patients, a fraction of the projected number. This discrepancy highlights the dangers of relying on overly optimistic projections without accounting for the complex factors that influence market growth.
Lessons from Global Markets: A Stark Comparison
Let’s take a look at how the UK’s required growth rate compares to the actual growth experienced by other nations:
- Germany: Germany legalised medical cannabis in March 2017. By 2023, their patient base grew from a few thousand to around 150,000—an impressive CAGR of 72.8% over six years. This translates to approximately 2,083 new patients per month at its peak. Even with Germany’s strong regulatory framework and public healthcare support, their peak growth rate was less than half of what we would need to achieve.
- Israel: Israel, a global leader in medical cannabis, expanded its patient base from 10,000 in 2012 to over 120,000 by 2023. This represents a steady CAGR of 26.7% over 11 years, with around 833 new patients added monthly. To meet the 300,000 target, our growth rate would need to be nearly six times higher than what Israel achieved.
- Australia: Australia legalised medical cannabis in 2016, and their patient base grew from 3,000 in 2018 to 100,000 by 2023. This corresponds to a CAGR of 96.5% and about 1,611 new patients per month. Even during its rapid expansion, Australia’s monthly growth rate was still just a third of what we need to reach our 2028 goal.
Summary: How the UK’s Growth Requirement Compares
To put it into perspective:
- Germany: We need a growth rate over twice that of Germany’s peak growth.
- Israel: We must grow nearly six times faster than Israel did over a similar period.
- Australia: Our required growth rate is more than three times what Australia achieved at its fastest pace.
These comparisons clearly illustrate just how challenging it will be for the UK to achieve the 300,000 patient target by 2028. The growth we need far exceeds the rates seen in other countries with well-established medical cannabis programs.
A Reality Check on the 300,000 Target
The comparison is stark: our target of reaching 300,000 patients by 2028 requires a growth rate that far surpasses what any other country has achieved, even under the most favourable conditions. This raises a crucial question for us: is this target grounded in realistic expectations, or is it more of a hopeful aspiration?
Predicting the future of the UK’s medical cannabis market involves more than just analysing past growth trends. We need to consider the potential challenges, including shifts in the political landscape, economic conditions, and public perception—all of which could significantly impact patient uptake.
Key Areas for Strategic Focus
Given these challenges, I believe we must focus on several critical areas to improve our chances of success:
- Simplify the Prescription Process: The current prescription process is cumbersome and frustrating for patients. Streamlining this process, perhaps through electronic prescriptions, could significantly reduce delays and improve access.
- Prioritise Education: Overcoming stigma and misinformation surrounding medical cannabis is vital. We need to increase efforts to educate healthcare professionals and the public about the benefits and applications of medical cannabis.
- Innovate Product Offerings: The market needs to evolve beyond traditional cannabis forms. Expanding product formats—such as oils, capsules, edibles, topicals, and patches—could make cannabis more accessible and appealing to a broader audience.
- Strengthen Domestic Cultivation, But Monitor Costs: While boosting domestic cultivation is essential, we must be mindful of affordability. Ensuring that UK-grown cannabis remains competitively priced will be key to broader access.
- Prepare for Economic and Political Uncertainty: External factors like economic downturns or political changes could impact patients’ ability to afford medical cannabis. We must be adaptable to ensure continued access to medication.
Bridging Ambition with Reality
The goal of reaching 300,000 patients by 2028 is theoretically possible, but the challenges are considerable. The required growth rate is unprecedented and fraught with obstacles. The significant gap between early predictions and the current reality, such as those from Prohibition Partners, should serve as a cautionary tale—overly optimistic projections can lead to significant disappointment and missed opportunities.
At Volteface, we specialise in helping companies navigate this complex landscape. With broad access to insights from politics, media, think tanks, the third sector, and patient perspectives, we provide the guidance needed to make informed decisions in this evolving market. If your organisation is looking to be part of the future of medical cannabis in the UK, get in touch with us today. Let’s work together to chart a course that’s not just ambitious, but achievable.